Research

Preprints | Peer-reviewed Articles | Conferences | Talks

Preprints

2026	The Counterfactual Combine: A Causal Framework for Player Evaluation. Herbert Susmann and Antonio D'Alessandro. arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.23233.
2025	Computationally and statistically efficient estimation of time-smoothed counterfactual curves. Herbert Susmann, Nicholas T. Williams, Richard Liu, Jessica G. Young, and Iván Díaz. arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.26554.
2025	Non-overlap Average Treatment Effect Bounds. Herbert Susmann, Alec McClean, and Iván Díaz. arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.20206.
2024	Longitudinal Generalizations of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated for Multi-valued and Continuous Treatments. Herbert Susmann, Nicholas T. Williams, Kara E. Rudolph, and Iván Díaz. arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.06135.
2024	Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing the Normal-with-Optional-Shrinkage Data Model Class. Leontine Alkema, Herbert Susmann, and Evan Ray. arXiv preprint arXiv:2411.18646.
2024	Statistical Demography Meets Ministry of Health: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool. Leontine Alkema, Herbert Susmann, Evan Ray, Shauna Mooney, Niamh Cahill, Kristin Bietsch, A.A. Jayachandran, Rogers Kagimu, Priya Emmart, Zenon Mujani, Khan Muhammad, Brighton Muzavazi, Rebecca Rosenberg, John Stover, Emily Sonneveldt. arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.00007.
2024	Flexibly Modeling Shocks to Demographic and Health Indicators with Bayesian Shrinkage Priors. Herbert Susmann and Leontine Alkema. arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.09217.
2023	A Bayesian analysis of current duration data with reporting issues: an application to estimating the distribution of time-between-sex from time-since-last-sex data as collected in cross-sectional surveys in low- and middle-income countries. Chi Hyun Lee, Herbert Susmann, and Leontine Alkema. arXiv preprint arXiv:2302.00951.
2023	Inference in Marginal Structural Models by Automatic Targeted Bayesian and Minimum Loss-Based Estimation. Herbert Susmann and Antoine Chambaz. arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.10630.

Peer-reviewed Articles

2026	Causal-DRF: Conditional Kernel Treatment Effect Estimation using Distributional Random Forest. Jeffrey Näf, Junhyung Park, and Herbert Susmann. The 29th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. [pdf]
2026	Asymptotically Efficient Data-adaptive Penalized Shrinkage Estimation with Application to Causal Inference. Herbert Susmann, Yiting Li, Mara A. McAdams-DeMarco, Wenbo Wu, and Iván Díaz. The Annals of Applied Statistics. [pdf] [arXiv]
2025	Bayesian Projection of Refugee and Asylum Seeker Populations. Herbert Susmann and Adrian Raftery. Demography. [arXiv]
2025	Doubly Robust Nonparametric Efficient Estimation for Provider Evaluation. Herbert Susmann, Yiting Li, Mara A. McAdams-DeMarco, Iván Díaz, and Wenbo Wu. The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society). [arXiv]
2025	Non-parametric treatment effect bounds for left-censored outcomes: estimating the effect of herbicide use on 2,4-D exposure. Herbert Susmann. Journal of Applied Statistics: Environmental Statistics and Data Science.
2025	Quantile Super Learning for independent and online settings with application to solar power forecasting. Herbert Susmann and Antoine Chambaz. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis. [arXiv]
2025	Flexible modelling of demographic transition processes with a Bayesian hierarchical B-splines model. Herbert Susmann and Leontine Alkema. The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics). [arXiv]
2024	Probabilistic Prediction of Arrivals and Hospitalizations in Emergency Departments in Île-de-France. Herbert Susmann, Antoine Chambaz, Julie Josse, Mathias Wargon, Philippe Aegerter and Emmanuel Bacry. International Journal of Medical Informatics.
2024	AdaptiveConformal: An R Package for Adaptive Conformal Inference. Herbert Susmann, Antoine Chambaz, and Julie Josse. COMPUTO. [arXiv]
2023	New Measures for Family Planning and Exposure to Risk of Pregnancy Based on Sexual Activity and Contraceptive Use Data. Chi Hyun Lee, Herbert Susmann, and Leontine Alkema. Studies in Family Planning.
2022	Temporal models for demographic and global health outcomes in multiple populations: Introducing a new framework to review and standardize documentation of model assumptions and facilitate model comparison. Herbert Susmann, Monica Alexander, and Leontine Alkema. International Statistical Review. [ArXiv]
2021	Outcomes from Returning Individual versus Only Study-Wide Biomonitoring Results in an Environmental Exposure Study Using the Digital Exposure Report-Back Interface (DERBI). Julia Green Brody, Piera Cirillo, Katherine Boronow, Laurie Havas, Marj Plumb, Herbert Susmann, Krzysztof Gajos, Barbara Cohn. Environmental Health Perspectives.
2020	Consumer behavior and exposure to parabens, bisphenols, triclosan, dichlorophenols, and benzophenone-3: Results from a crowdsourced biomonitoring study. Robin Dodson, Katherine Boronow, Herbert Susmann, Julia Udesky, Kathryn Rodgers, David Weller, Million Woudneh, Julia Green Brody, and Ruthann Rudel. International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health.
2019	Dietary habits related to food packaging and population exposure to PFASs. Herbert Susmann, Laurel Schaider, Kathryn Rodgers, and Ruthann Rudel. Environmental Health Perspectives. Erratum
2017	DERBI: a digital method to help researchers offer "right-to-know" personal exposure results. Katherine Boronow, Herbert Susmann, Krzysztof Gajos, Ruthann Rudel, Kenneth Arnold, Phil Brown, Rachel Morello-Frosch, Laurie Havas, and Julia Green Brody. Environmental Health Perspectives.
2013	rlme: An R package for rank-based estimation and prediction in random effects nested models. Yusuf Bilgic and Herbert Susmann. The R Journal.

Conferences

Selected Presentations

2026	Non-overlap Average Treatment Effect Bounds. Herbert Susmann, Alec McClean, and Iván Díaz. In the invited session Some Positive Developments on the Positivity Assumption, American Causal Inference Conference 2026, Salt Lake City, USA.
2025>	Projections of Refugee and Asylum Seeker Populations by Country of Origin and Destination. Herbert Susmann and Adrian Raftery. Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2025 on Demographic Perspectives on Migration in the 21st Centurey, Vienna, Austria. 15% submission acceptance rate.
2025	Longitudinal Generalizations of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated for Multi-valued and Continuous Treatments. Herbert Susmann, Nick Williams, Kara Rudolph and Iván Díaz. In the invited session Advanced Strategies for Longitudinal Causal Inference and Treatment Switching, JSM 2025, Nashville, USA.
2025	Flexibly Modeling Shocks to Demographic and Health Indicators with Bayesian Shrinkage Priors. Herbert Susmann and Leontine Alkema. PAA 2025, Washington, D.C., USA. [slides]
2025	Bayesian Projection of Extant Refugee and Asylum Seeker Populations. Herbert Susmann and Adrian E. Raftery. PAA 2025, Washington, D.C., USA.
2025	Longitudinal Generalizations of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated for Multi-valued and Continuous Treatments. Herbert Susmann, Nick Williams, Kara Rudolph and Iván Díaz. In the invited session Advances in Modern Causal Inference, ENAR 2025, New Orleans, USA. [slides]
2024	Targeted Bayesian Learning for Causal Inference: The Best of Both Worlds? Herbert Susmann. In the invited session Novel and Flexible Bayesian Approaches for Causal Inference in Complex Settings, ISBA 2024, Venice, Italy. [slides]
2022	Flexible Modeling of Transition Processes via Bayesian Spline Rate Models. Herbert Susmann and Leontine Alkema. European Demography Conference 2022, Groningen, the Netherlands. [slides]
2022	Un Estimateur Ciblé Général pour les Modèles Structurels Marginaux [General Targeted Estimation for Marginal Structural Models]. Herbert Susmann and Antoine Chambaz. 9ème Rencontres des Jeunes Statisticien.ne.s 2022.
2021	Estimation Bayésienne Ciblée de Modèles Structurels Marginaux [Bayesian Targeted Estimation of Marginal Structural Models]. Herbert Susmann and Antoine Chambaz. Forum des Jeunes Mathématicien.ne.s 2021.
2021	Estimating Demographic and Global Health Indicators for Multiple Countries and Periods in the Context of Missing Data and Data Quality Issues: Introducing a Class of Temporal Models for Multiple Populations to Facilitate Model Comparison. Herbert Susmann, Monica Alexander, Leontine Alkema. Population Association of America (PAA) Annual Meeting 2021. [slides]
2019	Point-Process Analysis of Modern Contraceptive Use in the Lake Victoria Region of East Africa. Herbert Susmann, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Chuchu Wei, Leontine Alkema. Population Association of America Annual Meeting 2019.
2017	Increasing Access to Environmental Health Knowledge Through Smartphone Results Reports. Kathryn Boronow, Herbert Susmann, Piera Cirillo, Nickilou Krigbaum, Laurie Havas, Barbara Cohn, Julia Green Brody. Breast Cancer and the Environment Research Program 12th Annual Meeting 2017.
2017	DERBI: A digital framework for personalizing exposure reports at the individual and community levels. Julia Green Brody, Herbert Susmann, Kathryn Boronow, Jennie Ohayon. International Society of Exposure Scientists (ISES) Annual Meeting 2017.
2017	Fluorinated compounds are common in U.S. fast food packaging and potentially contribute to population-wide PFAS exposure. Laurel Schaider, Simona Balan, Arlene Blum, Herbert Susmann, David Andrews, Mark Stryar, Ruthann Rudel, Robin Dodson, Graham Peaslee. International Society of Exposure Scientists (ISES) Annual Meeting 2017.
2015	DERBI, a New Digital Reporting Tool, Helps Study Participants and Researchers See Insights about Personal Exposure. Julia G Brody, Herbert P Susmann, Ruthann Rudel, Kenneth Arnold, Serena Ryan, Krzysztof Gajos. International Society of Exposure Scientists (ISES) Annual Meeting 2015.
2014	Computational Techniques for the Analysis of Big Data in R: A Case Study of the rlme Package. Herbert Susmann, Yusuf Bilgic. UP-Stat 2014.

Talks

Selected Talks

2026	Non-overlap Treatment Effect Bounds. Online Causal Inference Seminar. [video]
2025	Causal Inference Based on Machine Learning for Complex Longitudinal Exposures. Iván Díaz and Herbert Susmann. Center for Advanced Studies, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München.
2025	Non-overlap Average Treatment Effect Bounds. Statistics and Data Science Seminar Series, University of Massachusetts Amherst.
2025	Overcoming positivity violations in observational studies with non-overlap bounds. Emerging Leaders in Research Lecture Series, Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine. [slides]
2024	Bayesian Modeling of Refugee Crises for Population Projections. Working Group on Applied, Bayesian and Computational Statistics, University of Washington.
2022	Un Estimateur Ciblé Général pour les Modèles Structurels Marginaux [A General Targeted Estimator for Marginal Structural Models]. Séminaire de Statistiques, MAP5, Université de Paris.